# Twin Deficits & Demographics

## Model Comparison

| Model | N | Countries | R² | ρ |
|-------|---|-----------|----|----|
| M1: Twin deficits (no Z) | 4,406 | 162 | 0.185 | 0.594 |
| M2: Twin deficits + Z | 4,406 | 162 | 0.185 | 0.594 |
| M3: fiscal × Z interaction | 4,406 | 162 | 0.197 | 0.589 |
| M4: fiscal × old_dep | 4,406 | 162 | 0.194 | 0.591 |
| M5: fiscal × old_dep × kaopen | 4,406 | 162 | 0.198 | 0.589 |
| M6a: Tercile 1 (early) | 1,576 | 77 | 0.228 | 0.478 |
| M6b: Tercile 2 (mid) | 1,426 | 78 | 0.137 | 0.741 |
| M6c: Tercile 3 (late) | 1,404 | 55 | 0.091 | 0.879 |
| M7: Pension moderator | 1,133 | 41 | 0.110 | 0.882 |
| M8: CA ~ fiscal_resid + Z | 4,406 | 162 | 0.185 | 0.594 |

## Fiscal Coefficient Across Specifications

| Model | fiscal coef | SE | p-value | Interpretation |
|-------|-------------|-----|---------|----------------|
| M1: Twin deficits (no Z) | 0.5260*** | 0.0345 | 0.0000 | |
| M2: Twin deficits + Z | 0.5224*** | 0.0347 | 0.0000 | |
| M3: fiscal × Z interaction | 0.2936*** | 0.0697 | 0.0000 | |
| M4: fiscal × old_dep | 0.7558*** | 0.0582 | 0.0000 | |
| M5: fiscal × old_dep × kaopen | 0.8010*** | 0.0624 | 0.0000 | |
| M6a: Tercile 1 (early) | 0.7106*** | 0.0633 | 0.0000 | |
| M6b: Tercile 2 (mid) | 0.4047*** | 0.0582 | 0.0000 | |
| M6c: Tercile 3 (late) | 0.0605* | 0.0337 | 0.0729 | |
| M7: Pension moderator | -0.1669 | 0.1204 | 0.1660 | |
| M8: CA ~ fiscal_resid + Z | 0.5224*** | 0.0347 | 0.0000 | |

## Interaction Terms

| Variable | Model | Coef | SE | p-value |
|----------|-------|------|----|---------|
| fiscal_x_Z_1 | M3: fiscal × Z interaction | -2.1456* | 1.2834 | 0.0946 |
| fiscal_x_Z_2 | M3: fiscal × Z interaction | 0.3780* | 0.1967 | 0.0547 |
| fiscal_x_Z_3 | M3: fiscal × Z interaction | -0.0174** | 0.0081 | 0.0315 |
| fiscal_x_old_dep | M4: fiscal × old_dep | -2.7590*** | 0.5544 | 0.0000 |
| fiscal_x_old_dep | M5: fiscal × old_dep × kaopen | -3.4601*** | 0.6635 | 0.0000 |
| fiscal_x_od_x_kaopen | M5: fiscal × old_dep × kaopen | 0.4383* | 0.2292 | 0.0559 |
| fiscal_x_pension | M7: Pension moderator | 0.0103* | 0.0059 | 0.0832 |